Much like cash-strapped Americans, the US government runs like a household on the edge. Rather than match incoming revenues with spending priorities, it uses its credit to make the minimum monthly payment. Fortunately, their income goes up almost all the time due to the hard work and ingenuity of its citizens. This will change at […]

The stock market is at all-time highs, inflation is supposedly contained, unemployment reflects what is arguably considered full employment, and yet the Fed is cutting rates. Is the economy healthy or not? Despite massive government stimulus, the risk still exists, and the good news is that we can identify areas of concern. The bad news […]

Futures traders often do their best in discrete periods of significant market movements. So-called “Fat Tail Events” in a normal distribution happen more than statistics suggest. This observance documented in the Nassim Taleb bestseller “The Black Swan” posits that people underestimate the likelihood of crisis conditions. While nobody predicts these events well, we can identify […]