Soybean values traded lower across the board today, with July 15’ settling at 9.22 ½ off 1 ¾ cents (New contract lows). Corn also showed weakness today, closing down 5 cents at 3.55, with Wheat values plummeting 21 ¾ cents, closing at 4.93 ¼, pegging in a new seven-day low.
Rains continue to fall, which has now become an obstacle to planting progress, with the trade estimating the national soybean planting pace will fall somewhere around 61% on tonight’s report, 2% below the five-year average pace. More moisture is expected next week in the belt, which may cause next week’s planting progress to fall further behind the normal clip. Some analysts are now calling for a shift of one to two million acres of corn into soy due to the wet conditions that have been dealt to producers so far this year. More acres and some yield reduction are still setting up US stocks to be at vexing levels next year. Taking all fundamental data into account – we may see futures leaning toward the $8.75 or less area in the near future. The US dollar rolled higher today, hitting 97.770 up 1.297, with Crude backing off the $60.00 level, closing down $1.41 at $58.31. Funds are estimated to be short a record 92,000 contracts of soybeans, 9,000 Meal, and long 23,000 oil. National soybean crop conditions are expected out next week.
Technically, there is nothing to stop beans from continuing their freefall except possibly a weather scare, which doesn’t seem to be in the cards for now. Values are currently trading below all key moving averages, and downward momentum is increasing after taking out the key $9.35 support level. Volatility does continue to drift lower but is still slightly above the longer-term mean average. Short-term key support now comes in at $9.00, with the prior support point of $9.35 becoming resistance. No short-term chart patterns are appealing; however, a possible longer-term double bottom may be in the works.
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Soybeans: July 15
