Call it the “Global Rotation”, but last month was a continuation of what we have seen for the year. There has been a flow of money into international stocks and increasing divergence between the rest of the globe and US risky assets. There is a dollar adjustment component to these returns, but there is no mistake that there is a preference for cheaper opportunities around the world.
Using a simple adjustment based on the DXY dollar index, the local returns should be moved down by over 2 percent which would have put returns closer to large cap US. The dollar has fallen about 5 percent since the beginning of the year which places global returns more in-line with large cap US. However, the switch from small cap and value in the US to other parts of the world is unmistakable along with the switch to large cap in the US.
Bonds posted strong gains both for duration and credit for the month. With a smaller probability of any inflation overshoot and monetary policy which seems to be measured, there is stronger demand for fixed income. This is more muted around the rest of the world after accounting for the move in the dollar. Commodities continue to slide and are the asset class laggard.