IASG, Author at IASG

via Institutional Investor: In March and for the quarter, the bulk of The Mulvaney Global Markets Fund‘s gains were driven by what the firm calls “soft” commodities. They accounted for about 51.6 percent of the month’s performance and 121 percent of the three-month period’s performance, per the firm’s document. Stock indices were responsible for 30 percentage […]

With the crude oil markets now trading well below where it was before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, observers may be forgiven for thinking that the consumer has won, meaning the producer has lost. Higher pump prices and the consumer’s weaker purchasing power certainly held back demand growth to only +1.85 million barrels per day […]

Commentary provided by David Zelinski of Opus Futures. Happy New Year to all! I’m excited to get off to a great start in 2023, but before discussing the outlook, I want to spend a quick minute discussing 2022. Our program was off to a strong start in the first half of 2022, but profits were harder […]

Commentary provided by David Zelinski of Opus Futures. I struck a bullish tone toward corn and soybean markets in last month’s commentary. Part of the bullishness was due to the recent (at that time) news of a breakdown in the Ukraine export corridor. We now know that the Russians backed down very quickly from their harsh […]

Commentary provided by David Zelinski of Opus Futures. In last month’s commentary, we reviewed various data points indicating that inflation is starting to roll over. While inflation readings are sure to remain elevated for several more months, the worst is clearly behind us, and the more pressing concern going forward could be slowing economic demand. Nothing […]

Commentary by GZC Investment Management Global balances in crude have been tight in 2H21 but since then have been globally neutral to soft. Great disparities between OECD and non-OECD countries have been noticeable. In short, OECD has been drawing oil stocks rapidly until recently while non-OECD countries, particularly China, were constantly building stocks, allowing them […]

Commentary provided by Brent Belote of Cayler Capital Cayler Capital had a slight pullback after our blockbuster performance in March, posting -5.53% for April (Past Performance not indicative of future results). Primary losses were from long oil positions. We have gone back to the sideline for the time being on oil directionally but still believe […]

Commentary by John Knott of Numberline Capital Partners. The NLCP Macro-Economic Model up ticked slightly this month from 8.16 to 8.32. That was a little surprising. We expect it to continue to weaken “slowly” as we move into summer and the Fed tries to slow the economy down. There has been a lot of talk about […]

Does Powell want an equity market decline? It seems so. Former Fed chair Bernanke spent a decade delivering a policy of actively pursuing a “wealth effect” via quantitative easing (QE), hoping that stock market gains would unleash additional spending in the economy. It didn’t really work, only serving to exacerbate the wealth divide. It took […]

Commentary by John Knott of Numberline Capital Partners. Last month, we left off expecting a re-test of the price lows but firmly believed the “panic selling” was primarily done with. Well, we got the re-test on all three major indices. As expected, the market has stayed volatile, and sentiment has rarely been this bad. In addition, […]

Commentary provided by Todd Delay of Gamma Q Our long bias to corn and the soybean complex drove returns for February. Deteriorating weather conditions in South America ratcheted down production estimates, providing support to corn and soybeans; then, as the month came to an end, it was marked with the opening of the Russian invasion […]

Commentary by GZC Investment Management In January, global energy demand was on the strong side of expectations, with oil storage in OECD drawing significantly. However, global crude oil balances suggest it is likely to ease for the coming months despite a strong backwardation in oil curves and limitation in US stocks building instrumented by Saudi […]