Corn: (July Corn Futures) – Values managed to edge higher by ½ cent on today’s session, settling at $3.61 even after the USDA analysts chose not to upwardly adjust new crop yield estimates leaving them at 166.8 bu/acre. This is the second-highest yield now on the books, however, the trade may see this as a […]
Buying (Long) a Put Option:A basic options strategy to be familiar with and learn the advantages and disadvantages of is Buying a Put Option (Long Put). Buying a Put option is the opposite of buying a call option in that a Put gives you the right, but not the obligation, to sell the underlying futures contract at a specific […]
Cash Price – Futures Price = Basis (at a specific point in time) A producer’s decision as to when and how to market their crops or livestock can have as significant an impact on their net bottom line profit as any production decision they may make throughout the year. Farmers today have more marketing alternatives […]
In my previous article, we reviewed the first seven of 13 “mental blocks” to investing an average CTA or investor may butt up against throughout trading or investing. To continue from where we ended off in the previous commentary, we will cover the final six biases and blocks that may affect how a CTA tests […]
A tranquil session today in the soybean market, with soymeal taking a backseat to oil. The nearby soybean spread May 15 vs. July 15 strengthened even with abundant total U.S. supplies in the picture. We have now seen Chinese imports lagging the year-ago pace for the last three consecutive months, with the cumulative seven-month import […]
Average CTA’s, investors, and people generally have an overwhelming desire to be “right.” Who likes to be wrong? You read and hear daily from friends, and fellow traders (spouses – J), how important it is to be correct, especially when they make a market prediction or, even worse when they put real money into a […]
Previously, we went over the first 3 of the 6 key variables to trading; a CTA or Money Manager knows that you may not, and as promised, here are the last 3 Variables. To recap, the first three were Now onto #4, 5, and #6… #4. How often do you have the opportunity to trade? […]
The myriad of bad economic news throughout the first quarter was punctuated today by the Commerce Department report that reported U.S. gross domestic product barely grew, only rising at a 0.2 percent annualized pace in the first three months of 2015. As usual, Federal Reserve officials sounded upbeat in their statement today, and as expected, there was […]
Most professional CTA’s look and think about trading much differently than an average trader or investor would, and the reason for this is not hard to understand. If a CTA is successful, they have dedicated their lives to the craft. Every trader wants to be successful; the subtle difference with a profitable CTA is that […]
The range of market prices gives a non-high-tech measure of historical volatility* throughout a trading interval, usually a day or a week. The range of prices is defined as the difference between the high and the low for that given trading interval. For example, if the current day’s range lies beyond the previous day’s range […]
Wheat futures continued their downslide today with May15 sinking 15 ¼ cents in Chicago and settling at 4.70 ¼ and hitting a new life of contract low, this all despite Funds holding a record 100,000 contract short position. U.S. moisture has been beneficial with weather forecasts into next week for additional rains which is starting […]
Bulls had something to cheer about to finish off last week’s trading in the Cattle markets after Thursday’s limit higher move followed by a $2-3 rally on Friday. However, the Friday afternoon USDA news was somewhat of a letdown, with the choice beef cutout coming in off $3.02 and the monthly COF (Cattle on Feed) […]
Sugar #11- May15 Futures – In yesterday’s trading session Sugar future values were strongly influenced by the exchange rate movement in Brazil. This is the first time since March of 2004 that the dollar quote fell below $3, closing at R$2.967 (-1.3%).