Category: Advisor Commentary
Navigating Economic Crossroads: A Closer Look at the Unconventional Path
In the famous Robert Frost poem “The Road Not Taken,” two paths diverged, and he took the one less traveled. We can look at charts of the US economy and compare them to previous periods to see that so far, we are taking the less traveled path as well. It makes all the difference. Despite […]
Cargo Collapse Chronicles: Navigating the Economic Storm through Freight Industry Signals
Economists often look for the proverbial “canaries in the coal mine” to predict where we head next. Specific areas of the economy tend to presage slowing growth earlier than others. The shipping of materials from one place to another is one such area. A supply chain is either gearing up for future sales or reducing […]
Ag Market Update: Wheat Prices Drop, China Becomes Top Wheat Importer, and Soybean Complex Dynamics
Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments For corn and soybeans, it was a quiet harvest month as far as prices were concerned. Futures contracts for both crops had only 5-7% trading ranges and settled within 1% of where they were a month ago. The U.S. harvest is progressing well, with both crops ahead […]
USDA’s Grain Reports: Wheat Surprises, Corn Holds Steady, and Ethanol Controversy Emerges
Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments The last business day of September always brings us the USDA’s Grain Stocks and Small Grains reports. Traditionally, in these reports, most of the big surprises have been in the corn or soybean stocks, where an unexpected number can trigger a corresponding change in their estimate of […]
Bearish August for Grain Futures: Corn Down, Soybeans Up, and Wheat Takes a Hit
Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments August was a bearish month for grain futures, with corn and wheat making their highs on August 2nd and lows on the 30th or 31st. Nearby corn and wheat futures traded to their lowest level since December 2020. Soybean futures, meanwhile, had almost the opposite experience, making their lows […]
Significant Developments in Agricultural Markets Before USDA Reports
Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments The last business day of June always brings the USDA’s release of its June 1 Grain Stocks Report and its Acreage Report. They arguably make it the most important report day of the year. This year’s reports certainly didn’t disappoint, but there were plenty of significant developments […]
Weather Dominates Ag Markets: Crop Surges, Price Wars, Soy Challenges
Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments As expected, the weather was the dominant feature this month. In the U.S., corn and soybeans were planted ahead of the average pace, which increases the chance for trendline or better yields. A late-month surge of planting in North Dakota looks to have held prevented planting acres […]
Why February Was a Bearish Month for Agricultural Futures: Understanding the Key Inputs
Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments A handful of key inputs combined make February a bearish month for agricultural futures. Corn, wheat, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil all closed lower for the month. After making their highs mid-month, all the nearby contracts made their lows today, the last day of the month. […]
Agricultural Futures See Lower Volatility in January
Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments By recent standards, January was a relatively quiet month for agricultural futures. Volatility trended lower for corn, wheat, and soybeans, and their monthly trading ranges were near the lowest of the past year. The top three global issues were the same as last month: 1) dryness in […]
Oil: The False Sense of Supply Security
With the crude oil markets now trading well below where it was before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, observers may be forgiven for thinking that the consumer has won, meaning the producer has lost. Higher pump prices and the consumer’s weaker purchasing power certainly held back demand growth to only +1.85 million barrels per day […]
December 2022 Opus Futures Ag Commentary
Commentary provided by David Zelinski of Opus Futures. Happy New Year to all! I’m excited to get off to a great start in 2023, but before discussing the outlook, I want to spend a quick minute discussing 2022. Our program was off to a strong start in the first half of 2022, but profits were harder […]
December 2022 Advanced Ag Program Commentary
Commentary provided by David Zelinski of Opus Futures. I struck a bullish tone toward corn and soybean markets in last month’s commentary. Part of the bullishness was due to the recent (at that time) news of a breakdown in the Ukraine export corridor. We now know that the Russians backed down very quickly from their harsh […]
December 2022 Macro Monitor Commentary
Commentary provided by David Zelinski of Opus Futures. In last month’s commentary, we reviewed various data points indicating that inflation is starting to roll over. While inflation readings are sure to remain elevated for several more months, the worst is clearly behind us, and the more pressing concern going forward could be slowing economic demand. Nothing […]