Category: Alternative Investment Strategy
Biggest Weekly Commodities Gain since 1960
The war in Ukraine is pushing commodity prices well beyond their recent inflation-induced highs, and it appears things may get worse. Bank of America says that commodity prices have seen their strongest start since 1915. Here are some highlights for the week (to confirm these are changes for the week, not the year). Oil prices […]
War on Low Energy Prices
“Energy independence is our greatest geopolitical and economic tool and we cannot lose sight of that as instability rises around the globe.” – Joe Manchin on February 17, 2022 It seems that despite this warning and others, this message seems to be getting lost, and we may see real consequences shortly as Russia sits on […]
Is this the Season for Managed Futures?
“Winter is Coming” goes the famous line from Game of Thrones. In that context, it portended trouble ahead. Perhaps, it could also refer to the stock market to begin the year with the lowest January returns since 2008. A saying says that “As January goes, so goes the year.” The truth is that few are […]
‘Twas The Taper Announcement Before Christmas
Investors held their collective breath as they waited on Jerome Powell to announce the newest Fed action the week before Christmas. Central bankers were unanimous in their decision to move to a less accommodative stance, and the market reaction was swift and fierce. The date, December 19th, 2018, when the Fed lifted the Fed funds […]
How to Build a Sustainable Investment Portfolio
In recent years, sustainability has moved from the financial sector’s periphery to the mainstream, and the industry has increasingly embraced a transition to a more sustainable and inclusive economic model. This, in turn, has made ESG investing is a hot topic right now. Environmental, social, and governance programs look at not only financial factors for […]
Seasonal Stock Depression
If it seems like September is looking like a rough period for the market you might be surprised but you shouldn’t be. In fact, over the past 50 years, it is the worst performing month of the calendar year. The chart below shows where the saying, “Sell in May and Go Away”, comes from referring […]
Who is Driving the Bus?
Nobody likes paying for insurance. It is intangible as you pay up front for an unknown risk that may or may not materialize. Many of us feel that we overpay, until we really need it. It is perhaps not surprising then that many investors spend little effort protecting against sudden and unexpected drops in the […]
Call me a Pessimist
All investors know the adage to “buy high and sell low” but few adhere to it. We can see this with record volume to start July trading coming mostly from retail investors as the S&P reaches another all time high. Perhaps I have been in the futures industry too long because when things are “too […]
Hedging an equity portfolio: Volatility
In our last article, “Why Traditional Hedges Fail,” we opined that most traditional hedges had significant weaknesses and did not have many characteristics of a great hedge. Volatility (long positions in VIX futures), while not perfect, has a number of these favorable characteristics for hedging an equity portfolio. The characteristics of an excellent equity hedge […]
A Better SPY?
Index investing is all the rage now, with over a trillion dollars invested in the SPY and VOO ETFs alone. Low fees coupled with broad market exposure are expected to be better for your portfolio than an actively managed strategy with higher fees. One could argue that as the indices’ components attract more capital flow, […]
Inflation Coming?
Want to play a “fun” game? Go to Google and type “currency crisis (insert any country name)” and see your results. Luckily for Americans, you will find that the United States is one of the few countries that have avoided this designation so far. As one of my Polish friends who immigrated asked me, “Why […]
Why Traditional Hedges Fail
An article by Scot Billington, Covenant Capital Management Unfortunately, most traditional hedges fail to deliver in several key areas. Buy-and-hold investing has been wildly successful since 1982; however, its adherents have had to endure two 50% drawdowns, a 25% down day, and 14 years of zero return. Long-term wealth is significantly impacted by drawdowns of […]
Futures Contracts are Easy. You are Already Using Them.
I have spent over a decade in the futures industry, so I am accustomed to blank stares when I tell people what I do. Most immediately assume it is too complicated to even try to understand. The ironic thing is that we all intuitively understand them already. We trade them all the time. We can […]