Prudent investors like to know where their money is and how it is being used. They don’t want surprise announcements that the investment vehicle holding their money has lost 75% because of poor choices or because of a lack of management integrity.
This paper addresses issues contributing to the underperformance of trend following programs during the investment environment of the past five years, a set of conditions that may continue for some time. As the “trend following” debate rages on, our ultimate concern pertaining to the current conundrum is whether trend following strategies are no longer profitable. While I review comments from a variety of leaders in the field, both data and comments focus more heavily on the CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) space than on that of other fund managers. Nevertheless, details are applicable to a variety of strategies. It is my hope that a broader perspective will encourage investors to ask more pragmatic questions, ultimately improving their manager selection process.
The stock market just hit an all time high and real estate values continue rising rapidly. Investors could not be happier. The day I refer to, of course, is October 9, 2007 when the S&P closed at its new record of 1565.15. What followed was a bull run in commodities culminating on July 11, 2008 when oil hit its high of $147.27 on dollar weakness and insatiable raw material demand from China. By January of 2009, oil dropped to almost $30 a barrel, the dollar was much stronger as seemingly everyone flocked to its perceived safety, and the worldwide economy would begin digging out slowly from the depths of the credit crisis. The S&P would drop below 700 points.