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After finishing off one of the wildest quarters of my trading career, April managed to take the cake.  For those that missed it (not sure how you possibly could have), oil settled negative $37.  The effects of this were immediate: risk barometers had to be recalculated, option models switched, and most importantly was the immediate […]

The second half of Q1 2020 turned out to be one of the most volatile periods ever for financial markets. The intensity and speed of the equity market sell-off has been unprecedented and market volatility has reached higher levels than during the peak of the financial crisis in 2008. The design of systematic trend-following programs involves many different building blocks, such as signal generation models, the structure of the investment universe, risk allocation targets between different asset classes, risk management models and portfolio construction methodology.

Wow what a month March turned out to be on the heels of February. During the COVID-19 outbreak we saw a huge volatility surge again in March across almost all asset classes from equities to rates to commodities. We showed a brief intra-month view of several managers we track and, good, bad or indifferent wanted […]

Guest post by Ernest Chan of QTS Capital Management As the name of our Tail Reaper program implies, it is designed to benefit from tail events. It did so (+20.07%) during August-December, 2015’s Chinese stock market crash (even though it trades only the E-mini S&P 500 index futures), it did so (+18.38%) during February-March 2018’s […]

Guest post by Brent Belote of Cayler Capital Russia broke the oil market!  Russia and the Saudis have entered into a dangerous game of chicken with each other.  Russia is determined to punish US Oil Producers while the Saudis are attempting to force OPEC+ back in line. To simplify, Russia would not comply with OPEC+ […]

We consider grains to be one of the most exciting markets for this year, an increase in the U.S. grain export will support prices, but only if the U.S. dollar stabilizes or declines. Corn and Wheat seem to be at a discount from their previous years’ price average; a definitive US-China trade deal could impact grains to have sharp moves in the year. We also anticipate an inflow of institutional money into grains that will move futures prices of different expiration. This is an optimal environment for our trading program.

By Kathryn M. Kaminski, Ph.D. Senior Investment Analyst,RPM Risk & Portfolio Management  DisclaimerWhile an investment in managed futures can help enhance returns and reduce risk, it can also do just the opposite and, in fact, result in further losses in a portfolio. In addition, studies conducted on managed futures as a whole may not be […]

The following is a guest post from Spring Valley Asset Management: Disclaimer: While investment in managed futures can help enhance returns and reduce risk, it can also do the opposite and result in further losses in a portfolio. In addition, studies conducted on managed futures as a whole may not be indicative of the performance […]

In February 2018, markets looked pretty dire for many option writers. The VIX had spiked 250% in less than a week and options sold a few days before were selling for many multiples of their original value. The biggest firm in the space, LJM Partners, went under and some of the best names faltered. Tianyou […]

While only time will tell if the potential impeachment of President Donald Trump is more sideshow than substance, the fallout from the impeachment inquiry and any subsequent hearings will likely pale in comparison to the potential ill effects of a destabilizing escalation in the trade war with China, an unanticipated surge in U.S. inflation data (which would, in turn, force the Federal Reserve to tighten rates in an aggressive fashion) or a continuation of the profligate spending policies of a spendthrift Congress. Ultimately, markets either rise or fall based upon the underlying health of the economy – not the political drama being staged in some Congressional hearing on Capitol Hill – and it is likely that the economic policies pursued by the Trump Administration (e.g., tax cuts, jobs growth, fair trade, rising corporate earnings, deregulation, etc.) have made the U.S. economy – and the U.S. stock market – more resilient to all manner of near-term shocks . . . even political ones.