Archives

Contrary-opinion trading is perhaps the best solution to market madness and noise; it is a “thinking man’s” trading tool. A Contrarian is a person who takes an opposing view, especially one who rejects the majority opinion, as in economic matters. So, in a nutshell, if a CTA / Money Manager is trading as a contrarian, […]

When a CTA or Money Manager is testing or back-testing their entry signals, one of the most important aspects they look at is if the techniques they are using have a distinct “edge” for the time frame they are trading (short-term, swing, long-term, etc.). Understanding MAE and MFE Positive price movement is when the market […]

Below is an excerpt from a recent interview with Sagat Capital. You can read it in its entirety at their CTA profile by clicking the Due Diligence link in the sidebar and completing the download request form. Market Philosophy and Trading Method IASG: What is your core belief about the markets? What have you learned about […]

Surprisingly strong grain and oilseed prices in recent months bring to mind a joke: One man inquires of another, who’s on hands and knees beneath a streetlight, “Have you lost something?” to which is answered, “My contact lens.” “Where did you lose it?” asks the one. “Over there,” responds the prone, while pointing afar. “Then why are you looking here?” “Because the light’s better.”

Small CTAs getting squeezed out of representation at the NFA At the upcoming 2015 NFA Board Elections, the nomination committee has decided to run giants Winton and AQR against local heroes James Koutoulas and John Roe of CCC fame.  Where would former MF Global customers be without all of their efforts? CTA/CPO representation would then be […]

Those of a certain age will remember the “gas crisis” of the 1970’s, when prices at the pump shot to record highs felt keenly in the economy and individual households. Subsequent statistics revealed no decline in imports, domestic production, or refinery run times, i.e., no supply reduction had occurred. It was demand that went wild, touched off by panic over statements out of would-be monopolist OPEC. A substantial percentage of motorists simultaneously acted to keep tanks topped up as security, abruptly increasing purchases to a record peak that could not be met. What seemed prosaic to individuals purchasing an additional five gallons per week was collectively a sudden, vast increase in demand far out of proportion to actual miles driven. Gas lines extended for blocks and media coverage fed the impression of a crisis which drove more to the pumps. Congressmen were quick to decry oil-company gouging, point fingers at speculators, and convene official investigations thereto.

This fall – the initial quarter of the 2014-15 crop year – has seen more extraordinary and “record” supply/demand events in more separate categories than any such period in memory. Soybeans left over from the previous year’s crop had dwindled to the tightest availability ever relative to pace of usage, followed by the largest soybean and corn crops in history, generating export business in the largest volume of soybean-equivalent (i.e., including soymeal) in history, resulting in the largest U.S. soybean export-loading week in history – to name just a few.

Trend following is the most prevalent strategy utilized throughout the managed futures industry. What is the best way to objectively analyze, measure, and compare the performance of a particular group of trend following CTAs? Last fall we attempted to answer this question by publishing a research paper that introduced our own metric that measures and compares the “goodness” of similar managers’ returns. This article updates that original piece, and the measurements and ranking methodology that we initially introduced remain the same.

Grain and oilseeds prices continue an abrupt transition from high-priced relative famine of the last five years to a low-price feast of plentiful supply. Farmers who did not prudently hedge before the big decline would say “overly plentiful,” but government subsidies will restore much of that. Recent years of demand growth undeterred by high prices had encouraged every farmer to plant and fertilize more, followed by Northern Hemisphere weather rivaling perfect greenhouse conditions. The result is the spectacular yields that high-tech seed companies advertised.

CTAs are always looking for opportunities to provide their firms additional exposure. Since IASG compiles data within our database, we thought it was relevant to provide CTAs with more marketing power when trying to reach their investing audience. Starting later this month, IASG will provide CTAs with access to a badge for ranking in the categories that meet their trading program. These categories include: discretionary, systematic, agriculture, Trend Following, Stock Index. The rankings badges will be provide monthly to the CTA for using on their email signature, embedding in their website, or within their marketing literature. Users of the IASG database will also get access to these badges on the CTA pages located in the right sidebar of the program page.

August trading results improved markedly as one of the metrics with which we track ourselves, the ratio of winning trades to losers, rose dramatically. Summer crop development was uncharacteristically dull, with unchanging, uncannily positive growing conditions. Since we refrain from exposing investor capital to weather forecasts anyway, we trained our attention on the wheat crops already harvested and the old-crop soybean market still working out its supply tightness.

NIBA holds three membership meetings per year – Chicago in September is the largest of the three. NIBA Chicago is a full-day conference, presented at two iconic financial institutions — the Chicago Board of Trade building and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange building. NIBA’s fall membership meeting in scheduled for September 22, 2014 in Chicago, IL. […]