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This paper addresses issues contributing to the underperformance of trend following programs during the investment environment of the past five years, a set of conditions that may continue for some time. As the “trend following” debate rages on, our ultimate concern pertaining to the current conundrum is whether trend following strategies are no longer profitable. While I review comments from a variety of leaders in the field, both data and comments focus more heavily on the CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) space than on that of other fund managers. Nevertheless, details are applicable to a variety of strategies. It is my hope that a broader perspective will encourage investors to ask more pragmatic questions, ultimately improving their manager selection process.

Dr. John Lintner, a Harvard Professor, presented the seminal paper entitled “The Potential Role of Managed Commodity – Financial Futures Accounts (and/or Funds) in Portfolios of Stocks and Bonds” at the annual conference of the Financial Analysts Federation in Toronto in May 1983. The findings of his work, namely that portfolios of equities and fixed income exhibit substantially less variance at every possible level of expected return when combined with managed futures, remain as true as ever more than 25 years later. In this brief paper, we attempt to update Professor Lintner’s work by demonstrating that the beneficial correlative properties of managed futures presented in his research persist today. We also reintroduce managed futures as a diverse collection of liquid, transparent hedge fund strategies that tend to perform well in environments that are often difficult for traditional and other alternative investments.

… or maybe more than one. If you’ve decided to include Managed Futures in your investment portfolio, the next step is choosing the right mix of Commodity Trading Advisors to help achieve your investment objectives. Just as managed futures help diversify an investment portfolio, different CTA programs can provide another layer of diversity within the […]

An alternative investment is a product other than traditional investments, such as stocks, bonds, or cash. Most alternative investment assets are held by institutional investors or accredited, high-net-worth individuals because of their complex nature, limited regulations, and relative lack of liquidity. Some of the more common alternative investment strategies are real estate investment trusts, hedge […]

I was recently interviewed for a few articles and the topic of overlaying strategies was discussed as a potential component of a managed futures portfolio. Realizing this topic is not discussed as much as it should be; it opens the door to a more in-depth understanding of managed futures. It is a topic I cover in my managed futures course at DePaul University.

The stock market just hit an all time high and real estate values continue rising rapidly. Investors could not be happier. The day I refer to, of course, is October 9, 2007 when the S&P closed at its new record of 1565.15. What followed was a bull run in commodities culminating on July 11, 2008 when oil hit its high of $147.27 on dollar weakness and insatiable raw material demand from China. By January of 2009, oil dropped to almost $30 a barrel, the dollar was much stronger as seemingly everyone flocked to its perceived safety, and the worldwide economy would begin digging out slowly from the depths of the credit crisis. The S&P would drop below 700 points.

The world reacted very negatively on Thursday to the idea of a post-quantative easing economy. The oddest thing about the reaction to the Fed announcement was that not only did the stock market plummet but nearly all of the commodity markets fell just as aggressively despite the US Dollar strengthening. The big question now is whether or not the talk of tapering will effectively end the bull run of 2013, and where we go from here. With the market off the highs, sideways over the past few weeks, then sharply lower, it really is an interesting and difficult situation. The market showed us all how weak its legs really are.

Farmers will tell you that “rain makes grain.” That often holds unless the rain is accompanied by winter-like temperatures during the planting season in the key growing areas within the US. As of May 13, the USDA reports that 29% of the corn crop has been planted as opposed to 85% last year. For soybeans, […]

As we enter the final two weeks of the first quarter of 2013 it is remarkable to see where the market has come and how steadfast it has been in getting here. It was only two months ago that traders were exiting positions for the safety of the sidelines, clients were calling to reassert risk measures, and the media was producing panic stricken headlines shouting words like “cliff” and “recession.” I must say, the arguments at the time were equally coherent regardless of your market stance. In fact they still are despite the recent highs. It did indeed seem like the sidelines were the place to be as no one wanted to be the first to wander of the looming fiscal cliff. Then just as everyone returned to work from the New Year the market decided to assert itself and the S&&P rallied 35 points and closed on the high.

By Bryen Deutsch, Portfolio Manager, IASGPosted January 16th, 2013 One of the adages in the grain pits at the Chicago Board of Trade states “the best cure for high prices is high prices; the best cure for low prices is low prices.” Simple economic theory makes this saying understandable. When grain prices run to extreme […]

by Tyler Resch, Portfolio Manager, IASGPosted December 18th, 2012 As the temperature outside rapidly drops along with the volume in the market it is starting to dawn that 2012 truly is drawing to a close.  We entered the year on the heels of record volatility, the largest bankruptcy the futures industry had ever seen, and […]

by Tyler Resch, Portfolio Manager, IASG A common theme among my prior newsletters and something I am constantly discussing with my clients is the need for diversification in your managed futures portfolio. There is substantial uncertainty in the market right now and although the Presidential election is behind us, investors seem to have as many […]