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In a comeback for the ages, the United States elected Donald Trump as its 47th President. His path to redemption seemed unlikely when he left office just four years ago, having faced two impeachments and multiple criminal indictments for issues related to handling classified information, falsifying business records, obstructing an official proceeding, and racketeering, to […]

A common question we received in the futures industry is what happens if an event occurs when the market is closed and we get stuck in a position when it re-opens. It is a good question, particularly with our 24-hour-a-day news cycle in which economic and geo-political events happen at an ever-increasing pace. The implication […]

Much like cash-strapped Americans, the US government runs like a household on the edge. Rather than match incoming revenues with spending priorities, it uses its credit to make the minimum monthly payment. Fortunately, their income goes up almost all the time due to the hard work and ingenuity of its citizens. This will change at […]

The stock market is at all-time highs, inflation is supposedly contained, unemployment reflects what is arguably considered full employment, and yet the Fed is cutting rates. Is the economy healthy or not? Despite massive government stimulus, the risk still exists, and the good news is that we can identify areas of concern. The bad news […]

Futures traders often do their best in discrete periods of significant market movements. So-called “Fat Tail Events” in a normal distribution happen more than statistics suggest. This observance documented in the Nassim Taleb bestseller “The Black Swan” posits that people underestimate the likelihood of crisis conditions. While nobody predicts these events well, we can identify […]

Black box trading sounds mysterious and scary for many. Tall tales of machines running amok or making mistakes that wipe out accounts make for good movies, but the reality is often much simpler. All good traders use rules to provide structure to their trading. This helps regulate emotions so they can make decisions quickly under […]

An esoteric trade caused dramatic sell-offs in the equity markets this month. A surprise rate increase by the Central Bank of Japan (BOJ) tipped over a complex set of dominoes, resulting in a 165% daily spike in the VIX contract in the United States and a 10% drop in the S&P over just a few […]

Much like my children would love to eat nothing but desserts, consumers prefer spending power with few limits that come with low interest rates. Thus, we see the shock from the talking heads on CNBC and other investment channels when central banks tighten. Sugar and cheap borrowing both create addiction, and both can also lead […]

Alternative investments changed more since I started in the industry in 2008 than I ever thought possible. One might think that the “AI Revolution” or more sophisticated computer power created a vast array of totally different return profiles, but instead, the big surprise is the ability for everyday investors to access non-traditional products. While regulators […]

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” This famous quote from Mark Twain seems like it would be old news over 100 years later but in a world with more data at our fingertips than ever before, it is hard to know if we see the truth or more damned lies. […]

One way to make sure you hit your targets is to simply adjust them lower. It looks like central banks worldwide will do just that in their fight against inflation. Despite a long-term target of a 2% annual rate, political pressure to sacrifice purchasing power in exchange for growth appears to be gaining steam. Given […]

The US Presidential election will generate endless talk about who is or is not “paying their fair share” and what tax policy should look like at the national level. Less discussed is the continuation of “tax cut fever” at the state level. Flush with cash from pandemic payouts from the government, many states decided to […]

If you spoke to a 25-year-old versus a 65-year-old, you might be shocked at the difference of opinion on where our country’s economic future is headed. While this disparity is common, the degree to which government policy is affecting each may be at its highest point ever. This is sending shockwaves through political circles, as […]