Summary

The strategy is designed to generate returns from the enduring concept of the business cycle. Over the cycle, interest rates go up in the expansion phase as the price of money increases (concurrent with the Federal Reserve raising rates) and then rates go down in the recession and aftermath (concurrent with the Federal Reserve lowering or holding rates); this cycle has repeated every 3-10 years historically. Treasuries make and lose return (in excess of cashflow) based on which way interest rates go. The strategy strives to capture a majority of these business-cycle-length primary trends in US sovereign interest rates by broadly having long positions when rates fall and having short positions when rates rise. Technical indicators modify this macro-economic market call in an effort to capture some shorter-term movements.